Category Archives: Elections

Worst Case Scenario


In this era you should expect a camera or two at any event.  But I have listened to what Romney said about the 47% and I have to tell you the media (lets just call them the left) has it dead wrong.  That sadly is to be expected as they sleep with President Obama more  than Monica Lewinsky shared a cigar with Bill Clinton in the Oval Office.

Romney in his discussion with potential donors was laying out a political strategy and what he said from my take was that in terms of votes you have to forget the 47% and write them off as Obama votes.  I don’t know about you folks but I call this a worst case scenario.  It appears to me that Mitt understood the potential to lose at least 47% of the vote based solely on Obama’s charisma and ability to lie to the masses about what he is doing.  So politically you write off those 47% and focus on the rest of the country.  Polls show this to be a close race and Romney is not stupid, he knows he needs to move that middle ground.

What he was laying out was a political strategy on winning an election.  Not an indictment of that 47%.  Many of whom are unwitting victims of the policies of Barack Obama.  Food Stamp payments are up, and while unemployment dropped it is mostly due to people giving up looking for jobs.  Apathy now rules the land and any candidate who does not acknowledge that is doomed.

The left will spin these comments the best they can because they can’t really tell you the truth about the record of Barack Obama, but the numbers don’t lie.  Highest Gas prices Ever!  Including a rise in price after labor day, which has historically never happened. Unemployment above 8 percent for the longest time in modern history.  The nationalization of a car company and the sale of another to a foreign entity.  And government control of both the healthcare and credit system.
Romney has a lot to talk about but who can he talk to?  He stated the worst case scenario hoping for the best.  How about you?  My worst case scenario is 4 more years of Barack Obama with a Senate controlled by Harry Reid.  Even if Romney gets elected without the Senate nothing will get done.  SO forget the chatter from the left.  Think about this.

Take back the country!  Ignore the distractions!

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90 Million Won’t Vote


I heard this yesterday and decided to see what it was about.  I was wondering if these were the disinterested or the disenfranchised.  So I did a Google search for how and what was being reported about the USA Today/Suffolk University poll.  There is of course the obligatory spin from the left blaming the Koch Brothers.  In an article at the HuffPo the former governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm comes down squarely in that camp.  It is actually the title of the article.  Not Voting? “The Koch Brothers Thank You”, her spin could not be more clear.  She is blaming the right for a campaign of potential voter suppression.  Here is an excerpt from her article.

The right is working very, very hard this election, spending record amounts of money, for the purpose of having you decide not to vote. They are desperate for you to stay home. They are spending money on ads. They are spending money on voter suppression. They are spending money on letting you know they are spending money so that it disgusts you; so that you’re turned off by the whole awful spectacle they’ve created. They have the champagne on ice, ready to pop the cork on election night when you opt out.

Not voting isn’t just sitting it out. Not voting is giving in.

Pretty strong indictment of the small government folks wouldn’t you say?  But we need to look at the sample and the methodology of the poll to see what is going on.  Commentary and articles as we have learned can be written with omissions and exclusions of fact.  Thankfully the Atlantic Wire posted some interesting commentary after they said those 90 million would vote overwhelmingly for Obama (if they voted).   This is what they posted on line.

Findings: Of unregistered voters, 43 percent said they would vote for Obama and 23 percent said they would vote for a third party candidate over Romney. Obama also won 43 percent of voters who are registered, but “said they are less likely to cast a ballot.” Romney got 20 percent of that category and 18 percent wanted a third party candidate.
Pollster: USA Today/Suffolk University
Methodology: Live telephone interviews with 800 U.S. adults with a margin of error of +/-3.47 percent.
Why it matters: According to USA Today, this year “perhaps 90 million Americans who could vote won’t.” Based on these results if Obama could just get them out to vote he would have a much handier win than he does right now.
Caveat: In the poll, more of the registered voters polled were Democrats: 30 percent to Republicans’ 14 percent.

Maybe it is me but the very first line here has some interesting information.  “Of unregistered voters” , this oxymoron is the first flaw in the poll.  Someone who is unregistered is not a voter.  They quite possibly have never voted and don’t care to vote.  Tat is why they are unregistered.  We could debate why all day and the cause is probably a combination of bad feelings about the system, a general apathy of the people and a lack of education and civic responsibility.  Is it tragic?  Most definitely

This big news story is based on a poll that might be a bit skewed, the caveat says it all, 30% Democrat to 14 percent Republican.  It would stand to reason that the poll would come out 2 to 1 in favor of Obama.Llet’s go back to 2008 and look at the folks who sat out that election.  Care to venture a number of American reported to have sat out that election?  80 million people are estimated to not have voted that year.  Incredibly in the 4 years of the Obama presidency 10 million more people feel disenfranchised?  Apparently most of them are people who support Obama as the poll surmises.

Now let’s turn our attention to the root of the story USA Today and some commentary in their post about this poll.  I found this very interesting comment for a group that studies the electorate.

Even in 2008, when turnout was the highest in any presidential election since 1960, almost 80 million eligible citizens didn’t vote. Curtis Gans, director of the non-partisan Center for the Study of the American Electorate, predicts that number will rise significantly this year. He says turnout could ebb to levels similar to 2000, when only 54.2% of those eligible to vote cast a ballot. That was up a bit from 1996, which had the lowest turnout since 1924.

This year, perhaps 90 million Americans who could vote won’t. “The long-term trend tends to be awful,” Gans says. “There’s a lot of lack of trust in our leaders, a lack of positive feelings about political institutions, a lack of quality education for large segments of the public, a lack of civic education, the fragmenting effects of waves of communications technology, the cynicism of the coverage of politics — I could go on with a long litany.”

HUH?  Wait  did he say “a lack of quality education for large segments of the public”.  What happened to all the money the feds pumped into the public education system?  And as I mentioned and he does too, the civics aspect of the whole process.  Why are we not teaching about our government in schools? Many of the points Mr. Gans makes we can consider self-inflicted wounds by our politicians.  Those things should inspire the electorate not suppress it.  I will cite the Tea Party as a movement that wishes to hold government accountable.  I have been to events where folks in the Tea party have met candidates and I can tell you that the questioning is not what you would call softballs.  The folks want people who will stand up for freedom and smaller government.  The support civic education and educating voters.

Maybe 90 million will sit out the election but the reasons they won’t vote are not as clear-cut as USA Today and the media makes it out to be and some of it could be Obama’s policies.

Links to the articles mentioned.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jennifer-m-granholm/not-voting-the-koch-broth_b_1786481.html

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/08/people-who-wont-vote-prefer-obama/55827/

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-08-15/non-voters-obama-romney/57055184/1

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Florida Exit Polls


While watching news reports on the Florida Primary and seeing Newt Gingrich get his hat handed to him early one piece of information jumped out at me.  Fox News reported that 66% of the people polled during exiting said they supported the Tea Party.  Let that soak in.   This is a state that is voting for what many say would be the last guy the tea party would support, yet they believe that the tea party is a good thing and believe in the mission.

So what did Floridians do?  They voted for the guy who currently is getting the highest polling vs Obama.  No other Republican is achieving these numbers.  So for Floridians it seems that it comes down to electability. Fox also reported that the people that claimed tea party affiliation split their vote fairly evenly for both Romney and Gingrich. What would you expect when the front-runners are a man of dubious conservative bone fides and a man who has at time made enemies deep within his own party.

They also said the economy was the most important issue right now.  So the votes for Romney would seem to be an acknowledgement of his business skills.

But let’s get back to the Tea Party.  There has been some debate about the lack of presence in this primary season.  But I will say that it is the “accountability” issue that is the strong suit for the tea party.  The opposition of the Tea party is not any one conservative or even moderate candidate for that matter.  The opponent of the tea party are the statist sand socialistic left.  The strong emotion of the 2010 elections is still alive and well but spread out over the field. The activism will certainly swell once the field is better defined and you can bet that any Senator, Representative or President who voted to spend like a drunken sailor and force Americans to buy health insurance will know that the tea party is not dead but merely waiting for a solid target to defeat.

The people of Florida just said the tea party is relevant and come November the Democrats who towed the party line will know the tea party is here to stay.

See you in November.

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Watch the Spin!


On January 20th ,Newt Gingrich fresh on the heals of a pretty good showing at the debate the night before opted out of a campaign event, at an conference that had poor attendance all week.  But that is not the way the Main Stream Media headlines the story,

Here is one from a Colorado TV Station

Gingrich cancels campaign event, poor attendance

1:17 PM, Jan 20, 2012

CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) – Newt Gingrich has cancelled a campaign appearance in South Carolina because of poor attendance.

Only later in the story do they explain that this was a conference of the Southern Republican Leadership and had low attendance all week.  Gingrich was not the draw. So his talk to the group had nothing to do with the attendance level.  Read the headline again.  Read that first line.  Maybe this was an aberration. Let’s do that Google search.

How about the Wall Street Journals Election2102 blog?

Gingrich Cancels Event After Few Show Up

By Danny Yadron

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Newt Gingrich is surging in the polls and garnered standing ovations at last night’s GOP presidential debate, but his campaign canceled his first event Friday at a college stadium here due to poor attendance.

If Danny Yadron of the Wall Street Journal gets it wrong.  Who will get it  right?  It appears no one.  Every news page I rea buried the lead.  Here is my story:

Poorly attended conference not for Newt

On Friday, the poorly attended Southern Leadership Conference and the Gingrich campaign cancelled Newts appearance due to the continued low attendance at the conference.

Newt’s campaign said it was better to have the candidate go on to the next stop, a children’s hospital, and spend more time with the kids.

Earlier in the week Rick Santorum spoke to a small crowd at the conference, Santorum’s weak showing so far in South Carolina would have been one reason for him to talk to anyone he could.

The main stream media.  Masters of burying the lead.  Designed to make you feel a certain way.  Read everything not just the headlines.

This was not an event promoted by the candidate.  It was a South Carolina event that did not have any real impact. Why bother?

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Perry’s Tax Proposal: As Flat as the Rockies


While many want to pound Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan into the ground for its addition of a 9 percent sales tax.  Very few have mentioned the newest proposal out there.  Let alone really evaluated it.  But Rick Perry has placed himself in the camp of the flat taxers to oppose the fair tax move of Herman Cain.  But what does Perry really offer?

Institute Individual Flat Income Tax Rate of 20%

By implementing a simple and optional flat tax that will allow Americans to file their taxes on a postcard, up to $483 billion a year could be saved by American families and businesses in reduced compliance costs alone.13 A simpler, flatter tax code – free from the dozens of individual carve-outs that make the code so incomprehensible – will remove the disincentives to work, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and investment that form the foundation of a strong and vibrant economy.

Lower- and middle-income families will be able to take advantage of an optional 20% flat tax rate that includes generous standard exemptions of $12,500 for individuals and their dependents, as well as deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions, and state and local taxes.

So Rick wants to offer the option of paying the flat tax.  If you currently pay less than the stated 20% flat are you going to opt in?  For that matter Perry’s big push is the savings in expenses to the American tax payer in services to figure out the taxes.  Well ask Governor Perry where will people go to figure out which one will benefit them!  This proposal will only blur the lines on our already complex tax system as it only adds another layer to investigate.

Now on to the next point.  The premise of a flat tax is that it is flat and that is that.  No deductions no loopholes, just a flat rate for everyone.  But Rick Perry wants to keep a few deductions.

Preserve Deductions for Mortgage Interest, Charity, and State/Local Taxes

Although the proposed flat tax system will not include most special tax credits or deductions embedded within the existing system, families and business that made investment decisions years ago based on the existence of those deductions or credits will still have the option to take advantage of those deductions and credits by remaining within the existing tax system. However, the new optional flat tax system will also include deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions, and state and local taxes.

Eliminating the deduction for mortgage interest payments could potentially drive housing prices down even further, while eliminating the deduction for charitable contributions could potentially reduce private funding for non-profits that provide vital services to the less fortunate in the midst of a severe economic downturn.

So what exactly would this 20% flat tax fix?   Nothing.  The argument that eliminating the mortgage deduction would slow the housing market is an interesting one.   Since the housing market is dropping steadily at the current tax rate and most of us end up paying (well the 53% who actually PAY income tax) about 15 to 20 percent anyway.  If a true flat tax on every American was proposed the market would probably skyrocket from the additional take home everyone would have.  A flat tax of say 9 percent (who proposed that?) would bring additional money to the people who could afford to buy homes.  Let’s not forget that it is the artificial propping up of a market by government intervention and loans to people who could not afford them prompted by easy bailouts by Freddie and Fannie. That caused this mess.

I have touched on just two areas of this proposal, only because it is easy to shoot holes in this plan just discussing these two areas.  News flash for Rick Perry,  a flat tax is flat (NO DEDUCTIONS) and if you want to simplify the tax code do it.  Do not leave the old system in place and add another layer.

It is not working for me folks.

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Herman Cain steps into the light.


Not wanting to play into the he said/ she said antics going on between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, Herman Cain stayed in Florida and snuck in a nice little straw poll victory. Perry’s meteoric rise was eclipsed, at least in Florida, by the slow and steady drum beat of Herman Cain’s campaign.

Michele Bachmann who started he campaign strong has done a slow fade and she was one of the people who decided that Perry getting into the ring was a bad thing.  She and Romney attacked him willingly.  Perry was no saint either during the debates and tried to put the Romney record on trial in the Florida debate.  This was not a shining moment for his campaign.  Stammering through what should have been a practiced  slam made Perry look unprepared.  And that would be the last impression Perry would leave on the Florida GOP.  He chased Romney up to Michigan.  This is the third stupid thing the Perry forces let happen.   Mitt’s dad was the Governor of Michigan and a very popular one at that.

So with Perry running after Romney who left Florida right after the debate, to go to Michigan, to win that straw poll and Bachmann grasping at the Tea party by trying to beat Perry into the ground, Herman Cain very quietly stayed in Florida and spoke to the Florida GOP.  He laid out his vision for America.  He also beat the snot out of everybody in the straw poll.  Here are the results

Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%

So with this poll in mind we need to take a good look at Herman and see what his vision is for the country.  Here is the beginning of his oft mentioned 999 plan.

Vision for Economic Growth

  • The natural state of our economy is prosperity. Freedom ensures that.
  • We must get the government off our backs, out of our pockets and out of our way in order to return to prosperity.
  • Policy uncertainty is killing the economy.

Economic Guiding Principles

  1. Production drives the economy, not spending.
    • We can not spend our way to prosperity.
    • Government spending IS taxation.
    • Government spending is like taking a bucket of water from the deep end of the pool, pouring it in the shallow end. Then they HOPE that the water level will CHANGE.
  2. Risk taking drives growth .
    • Business formation and job creation are dependent on entrepreneurs taking risks.
    • Investors who fund those entrepreneurs likewise take risks.
  3. Measurements must be dependable.
    • A dollar must always be a dollar just as an hour is always 60 minutes.
    • Sound money is crucial for prosperity.
I love the pool analogy.  That is dead on.  Here is a link to his plan you should read it.

http://www.hermancain.com/999plan

I am not ready to come out and endorse anyone here  I am merely pointing out that while we were watching the fireworks from the supposed frontrunners, Herman Cain was eating away at all of their bases, at least in Florida.   I will say this much.  I looks like we can stick a fork in Huntsman and Bachmann.  Florida is a big tea party state and Michelle only getting 1.5% of the ballots is not a good sign for her.  The story goes she is well invested in Iowa. If this keeps up that may not help.

As for Herman Cain he will just keep talkig about the economy.  After all that is the issue, Right?

 

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The Iowa Straw Poll. The results are in!


Over the last few days,  many of the candidates for the Republican nomination gathered in Iowa to demonstrate who has the muscle to win the nomination and eventually the Presidency.  Candidates are spending big money on barbeque and country stars.   They rent big tents and install air conditioning so their supporters will be comfortable when the vote for them.  The Lame Stream Media hype the hell out of this event, talking about a candidates strengths and weaknesses.  Turn on a TV station on August 13, 2011 and you will hear wall to wall coverage of one of the least populous states in the country.  Pigs might outrank people in Iowa.  But here we are sitting in our living rooms watching the talking heads fan the flames of politics on an event that during its brief history has had very little success picking either the Republican Nominee or the winner of a general election.  The only candidate to run the board of Iowa Straw poll, The Iowa Caucus and the republican nomination was George W. Bush, and for the record he gave us Medicare part D and the first bailouts.  Hardly a conservative stance.

I do not live in a conservative state   I live in a liberal state and the people of Iowa are so far removed from my reality that what they decide has zero effect on me.  Iowa picked Bob Dole.  Bob won the nomination and lost the General election.  Iowa picked  GWB’s Dad in the 980 race.  Which was won by Ronald Reagan with GHWB as his VP.  Sadly 8 years later the country elected the elder Bush and he immediately turned on his number one promise.  NO NEW TAXES!

Folks this is nothing more than political theater.  Go investigate the voting records of these people.  Read what they said about the  things that matter to you.  But by no means should we think that Iowa is the standard-bearer.  They voted for Obama in 2008.

Folks, take in this whole thing as an amusing distraction but Iowa is not a snapshot of the US.  It is a narrow vista being bought by the Republican party to enhance its image.

The winner of the Republican nomination and possibly the Presidency may not have entered the race yet!  It is s long road to November 2012.

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